Koby Rickertsen

Why Nebraska, Kansas, and the High Plains Should Be Paying Attention Right Now If you live in Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, or Colorado, you’ve probably heard people say something like: “Yeah, we need snow in the mountains.” That’s not small talk or ski resort chatter. That is the foundation of our entire water system, our irrigation economy, and in a lot of cases, our land values. And right now, the Rocky Mountains are flashing a warning sign that most folks are not taking seriously enough. This winter, the West is dealing with what experts are calling the worst snowpack conditions in decades, and in some areas, the worst ever recorded. As of February 1, 2026, snow cover across the Western U.S. hit the lowest level in the MODIS satellite record going back to 2001. Colorado, Utah, and Oregon are showing record-low statewide snowpack. That should get everyone’s attention, from Phoenix to Scottsbluff. Because the snowpack is not just snow. It is the West’s biggest reservoir. Snowpack Is a Bank Account, Not a Pretty View Here’s the best way to explain it. Rocky Mountain snowpack is basically our “savings account” for spring and summer. It stores water until the growing season needs it. When that account is low, everything downstream suffers. And right now, that account is dangerously low. Some of the most important numbers from early February 2026: Upper Colorado River Basin: 61% of median Colorado River Headwaters: 54% Gunnison River Basin: 56% Four Corners Basin: 47% Salt River Basin (Arizona): 17% Upper Rio Grande: 48% Colorado statewide is sitting at record low snowpack with 95% of SNOTEL stations in snow drought. Utah is record low too, with 80% of stations in snow drought. That is not “a dry year.” That is a full-on warning flare. Here’s the Part That Should Make You Nervous Even the Snow We DO Get Might Not Turn Into Water A lot of people think if we get a few late storms, we’ll be fine. That used to be true. Now, it’s not. The report points out a brutal trend called inefficient runoff. In plain English, it means the snow melts, but the water never makes it to the rivers or reservoirs. Why? Because soils are so dry they soak it up like a sponge. And because the melt starts early, evaporation and plant transpiration steal a huge amount of that water before it ever becomes usable streamflow. In 2025, forecasters predicted 81% runoff, then revised down to 67%, and the basin ended up producing only 41% of average stream flows. That is the definition of “you thought you had water, but you didn’t.” So even if the Rockies get a decent March, it might not matter like it used to. Lake Powell and Lake Mead Are Still Sliding And This Isn’t a Southwest Problem, It’s an Everyone Problem We can’t talk about snowpack without talking about the reservoirs that run the entire Western water system. Lake Powell is sitting at around: 3,533 feet elevation 25–26% full Down 32 feet from one year ago Worst-case forecast could drop it near 3,499 feet, dangerously close to minimum power pool at 3,490 feet If Powell drops below minimum power pool, Glen Canyon Dam cannot generate hydroelectric power. That is not a theoretical problem, that is a real-world economic disruption. Lake Mead is also in trouble: 1,065 feet elevation About 34% full The system is now at 37% total capacity, down from 42% one year ago Projections show Mead possibly dropping below 1,050 feet, which triggers Tier 2 shortages That Tier 2 shortage is where things start getting ugly. So What Does This Have to Do With Nebraska? Everything. Here’s where people in the Midwest and Plains states make a mistake. They think the Colorado River drama is “out west.” But the same Rocky Mountain snowpack that feeds the Colorado River also feeds the North Platte, the South Platte, and contributes to the broader Missouri River system. Meaning this snow drought isn’t just a Vegas problem, it’s a Nebraska irrigation problem. The report lays it out clearly: Reservoirs on the North Platte system are only 32% to 53% full Lake McConaughy was around 49% capacity in early January Lower North Platte snowpack was only 39% of median South Platte Basin was around 61% April–July runoff forecast above Glendo Dam: 430,000 acre-feet, which is 47% of the 30-year average That is a massive deficit. And when runoff is cut in half, allocations are not far behind. That means the 2026 growing season could get real western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming in a hurry. Kansas Has a Problem Too, and It’s Not Just Drought It’s Compacts and Groundwater Decline Kansas is dealing with two pressures at the same time. First, the Republican River Compact. Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado split that river under a 1943 agreement, and Colorado is already retiring 25,000 acres of irrigated land to meet compact obligations. Second, the Ogallala Aquifer decline. Western Kansas groundwater drops have been documented at over a foot per year in some areas. Even more telling, the report points out farmers in Sheridan County voluntarily cut pumping by 20% and proved that reduced pumping can stabilize the aquifer while staying profitable. That’s not just environmental news. That is land value news. Because water security is what makes farmland a long-term investment instead of a gamble. This Is the Part Nobody Talks About Wildfire Risk and Rangeland Damage Low snowpack doesn’t just mean less irrigation water. It means dry fuels. Colorado fire managers are saying conditions haven’t looked this bad in 30 years, comparing it to the buildup before the brutal fire seasons of 2000, 2002, and 2012. That matters to ranchers, landowners, hunting property buyers, and anyone holding rural real estate in the mountain West. Because fire changes land fast. And not in a good way. What This Means for Landowners and Land Values This Is Where My Broker Brain Kicks In Let’s be clear, if you own irrigated land, water is not a side issue. Water is a major part of the value. A dry year doesn’t just hit yields. It changes buyer confidence, appraisal logic, lease rates, and the long-term outlook for an operation. If allocations drop on the North Platte or restrictions tighten on groundwater pumping, it will show up in land transactions. You might not see it tomorrow. But you will see it. The report makes it clear that Nebraska often leans on groundwater when surface water is short, but the Ogallala is not an unlimited safety net, especially after multiple dry years. A UNL report cited groundwater declines of 10 to 15 feet in some Nebraska counties after drought conditions. That is not a crisis headline. That is a long-term trend. And long-term trends are what smart landowners pay attention to. The Biggest Story in All of This Post-2026 Colorado River Negotiations Here’s what most people don’t realize. Several major Colorado River agreements expire at the end of 2026, including the 2007 Interim Guidelines and the 2019 Drought Contingency Plans. Federal agencies released a Draft Environmental Impact Statement in January 2026, with public comments due by March 2, 2026. In other words, the rules are being rewritten right now. And the core dispute is simple: The Lower Basin wants the Upper Basin to share mandatory cuts The Upper Basin says the Lower Basin has been overusing water for decades and doesn’t want to take responsibility for it Snow Pack Blog 2026 If no deal happens, litigation is likely. And if litigation happens, uncertainty becomes the new normal. That uncertainty will ripple into agriculture, development, municipal growth, and eventually… land prices. My Take as a Land Broker This Isn’t Panic Time, But It Is Pay Attention Time I’m not here to preach doom and gloom. But I am here to tell you that water risk is becoming one of the biggest under-discussed forces shaping rural America. We’re watching a system that was designed around 18 million acre-feet of river flow, but modern science says the long-term average is closer to 13 million acre-feet, while legal allocations total 16.5 million. That math does not work. And when the math doesn’t work, somebody eventually gets cut. If You Own Land, Here Are the Questions You Should Be Asking Not emotional questions. Business questions. What is my water right priority? What happens if allocations drop 20%, 30%, 50%? What is my groundwater plan if surface water gets tight? What is my exposure to compact calls? What does this mean for my long-term crop rotation, stocking rates, or lease structure? If I’m buying land, what’s the real water security story, not the brochure version? Because water is no longer a “background factor.” Water is front and center. Final Thought The Rocky Mountains are sending signals that we are heading into a tough year. The people who will come out ahead are the ones who treat this like a business variable, not a weather conversation. If you’re a landowner thinking about selling, buying, restructuring, or even just protecting what you already have, this is the time to evaluate your water risk honestly. And if you’re not sure what questions to ask, that’s exactly what we’re here for. At Ironhorse Land Company, we don’t just sell land. We help people understand what the land is worth, and why. Because the details matter. And in 2026, water is one of the details that matters most.

Farmland auctions are no longer just a local event held in a small-town community hall with a ringman, a fast-talking auctioneer, and a crowd of neighbors. That world still exists, and it still works, but the modern auction landscape has evolved fast. In 2026, technology is reshaping how land is marketed, bid on, and sold. Online auction platforms, hybrid auction formats, and AI-driven tools are expanding buyer reach, increasing transparency, and pushing competitive bidding into a whole new era. For landowners, this can mean stronger sale prices. For brokers, it means the strategy matters more than ever. If you are selling farmland, ranch ground, or recreational land in today’s market, the question is not whether technology is changing auctions. It already has. The question is how to use it correctly. Online Auctions and AI Bidding Are Expanding the Buyer Pool Online farmland auctions have completely removed the old geographic limitations. A buyer no longer needs to live in the county, or even the state, to compete. Today’s bidder pool often includes: Out-of-state investors Farm operators expanding their footprint Recreational buyers Institutional and fund buyers 1031 exchange participants under deadline pressure That kind of expanded reach increases competition, and competition is what drives sale prices. AI is Starting to Influence Bidding Strategy Auction technology is becoming smarter every year. Many platforms now track bidder behavior in real time and provide insights into momentum, bid pacing, and participation trends. Some auction systems are also experimenting with AI-assisted features that help auctioneers and brokers identify: When bidder activity is peaking When to extend bidding windows When to adjust increments When “stall points” happen in the bid cycle The takeaway is simple. Auctions are no longer guesswork and instinct alone. Data is becoming part of the strategy, and it can help maximize seller outcomes when used correctly. Transparency Builds Confidence Online bidding environments also create a more transparent and level playing field. Every bidder has access to the same terms, documents, and timeline, which builds confidence and reduces confusion. When buyers trust the process, they bid harder. Hybrid Auctions: The Best of Both Worlds Hybrid auctions have become one of the strongest tools in modern land sales. They combine the energy of an in-person event with the reach of online bidding. This model works well because it captures two buyer types at once: Local bidders who want to be in the room Remote bidders who want to participate without travel Hybrid formats create a powerful psychological effect. When online bidders see in-person buyers raising their hands and pushing the price, it reinforces urgency. When in-person buyers see online bids coming in fast, it raises intensity in the room. Hybrid auctions often create the kind of momentum you simply cannot replicate in a traditional listing. Auction vs Traditional Listing: Choosing the Right Strategy Matters Auctions are not the right tool for every property. Sometimes a traditional listing with strong marketing and targeted outreach is the best play. That said, auctions are extremely effective when the market conditions and the property type line up. Auctions tend to work best when: The land is high-demand and hard to replace Multiple buyers are likely to compete The seller needs a defined timeline The property is part of an estate settlement The property is distressed or being liquidated 1031 exchange buyers are expected to participate If the property is unique, high-quality, and likely to draw multiple bidders, auctions can create urgency and price escalation in a way a traditional sale often cannot. But if the land is niche, has complicated access, unusual improvements, or limited buyer appeal, a traditional marketing approach may bring a better outcome. The truth is simple. A good broker does not default to one method. A good broker chooses the method that fits the land. Streamlining Closings with Automation and AI Tools Technology is not only changing the auction itself. It is also transforming what happens after the final bid. Closings are faster today because of improved digital tools that reduce friction in the transaction process. Automated due diligence tools can assist with: Organizing title work and survey documents Managing buyer document access Tracking deadlines and escrow requirements Reducing missing paperwork and communication gaps Digital signing is now standard Remote closings are no longer unusual. Electronic signatures, digital document management, and secure transaction portals have become normal in modern land deals, especially when buyers are located in other states. This matters because many auction buyers are not local anymore. If your process is still built around paper and office visits, you are going to lose efficiency and credibility. Challenges of the Digital Auction World Even with all the advantages, online and AI-driven auctions come with real challenges. Data security and privacy concerns Buyers and sellers are right to ask questions about how platforms store information, protect bidder data, and prevent fraud. Professional auction firms and brokers must use reputable platforms with strong security standards and clear transparency. The digital divide is real Some older landowners and buyers are uncomfortable with online bidding. That does not mean they cannot participate, but it does mean brokers need to provide support, education, and clear communication. The technology should not replace relationships. It should enhance them. The Future of Farmland Auctions The future is headed toward even more advanced digital tools, including: AI-enhanced market value modeling Automated bidder qualification systems Improved bidder behavior analytics Virtual and drone-based property tours Stronger auction marketing integration with social media and buyer databases The land market is not slowing down. It is becoming more competitive and more sophisticated. And brokers who embrace modern auction strategy will have a serious advantage. Technology Partners Are Driving Innovation in Land Auctions The evolution of farmland auctions is not happening by accident. It is being driven by auction technology partners that continue to invest heavily in platform stability, bidder experience, data security, and innovation. Companies like BidWrangler are constantly refining online and hybrid auction technology to improve bidder engagement, reliability, and performance. These improvements matter in real-world land sales because smoother bidding experiences lead to higher participation and stronger competition. For a deeper look at how auction platforms are evolving to stay ahead of the market, you can read more about how BidWrangler is continuously improving its technology here. https://www.bidwrangler.com/blog/detail/bidwrangler-continuously-innovating-to-stay-better-than-yesterday Final Thoughts Farmland auctions in 2026 look very different than they did even five years ago. Online bidding platforms, hybrid sale models, and AI-driven tools are expanding the buyer pool, increasing transparency, and creating stronger competition. For landowners, that can mean higher sale prices and cleaner timelines. For brokers, it means the marketing and auction strategy must be intentional and professional. Auctions are not just an event anymore. They are a system, and when used correctly, they can produce exceptional results. If you are considering an auction for farmland, ranch land, or recreational property, it is worth having a serious conversation about which sales model will produce the strongest return.

Land sale tax planning is often overlooked until after a property is under contract, or worse, after it has already closed. For many landowners, selling farmland, ranch ground, or recreational land represents decades of work and stewardship, and the tax consequences tied to that sale can be significant if planning starts too late. There are no shortcuts and no gimmicks. There are well established, IRS recognized tools that can defer taxes, spread them over time, or reposition proceeds into assets that better match a landowner’s next chapter. Knowing those tools exist, and knowing when to bring the right people into the conversation, is where professional guidance matters. Where Landowners Often Get Stuck The sequence is usually familiar. A broker is hiredThe land is marketedA contract is signedThe sale closesThen the tax questions begin At that point, most planning opportunities have already passed. Capital gains taxes, depreciation recapture, and state taxes are driven by the structure and timing of the sale itself. Once the closing statement is finalized, flexibility narrows quickly. That is why selling land works best when tax planning is part of the conversation early, not an afterthought. Land Sale Tax Planning Tools That Commonly Come Into Play Most landowners do not need to become experts in tax strategy. What matters is understanding that there are multiple paths, each with benefits and trade-offs. 1031 Exchanges as the Foundation The most widely known option is the 1031 exchange. It allows landowners to defer capital gains by reinvesting proceeds into other like-kind real estate. This can work well for those who want to stay invested in land or income producing property. It also introduces strict timelines, reinvestment pressure, and the risk of concentrating all proceeds into a single replacement property. It is effective, but it requires coordination well before closing. Delaware Statutory Trusts for Passive Ownership Delaware Statutory Trusts, often called DSTs, are frequently used alongside 1031 exchanges. DSTs allow landowners to exchange into fractional ownership of large, professionally managed real estate. For landowners stepping away from active operations or those who want income without day to day responsibility, this can be an appealing option. DSTs are not liquid, they are not customizable, and they are not appropriate for every situation. Understanding whether they fit requires context, not just availability. Opportunity Zone Investments Opportunity Zones were designed to encourage long-term investment in designated areas. They can allow landowners to defer capital gains and potentially reduce taxes on future appreciation if holding requirements are met. These investments are often development focused and carry higher execution risk. They can make sense in specific situations, but they require patience, careful underwriting, and the right partners. They are tools, not shortcuts. Installment Sales Installment sales spread the recognition of gain over time as payments are received. This approach is common in seller financed transactions, family transfers, and some farm and ranch sales. It can smooth tax exposure and create predictable income, but it also means the seller remains tied to the buyer’s performance. Credit quality, collateral, and structure matter more here than many expect. Conservation Easements For agricultural and recreational landowners, conservation easements can play a meaningful role in tax and estate planning. They can reduce taxable value, provide charitable deductions, and preserve land use for future generations. These decisions are permanent and must align with family goals and long-term stewardship values. This type of planning happens well before a property is listed for sale. Combining Strategies Thoughtfully In many cases, the strongest outcomes come from combining strategies. A portion of proceeds may be exchanged, another portion placed into passive investments, and some taken as cash to meet personal goals. As land values increase, complexity often increases as well. That is not a problem, it is simply part of thoughtful planning. Why This Is Bigger Than a Tax Conversation Tax outcomes are influenced by more than just rates. Pricing decisions affect exposureTiming affects eligibilityDeal structure affects flexibilityCash flow needs affect strategy selectionEstate plans influence long-term outcomes No single professional sees all of this alone. Effective planning requires coordination between land real estate professionals, tax advisors, attorneys, and investment specialists. The Role of a Land Real Estate Professional A knowledgeable land broker does not replace a CPA or attorney. Their role is to recognize when a land sale creates meaningful tax exposure and to raise the right questions early enough that planning is still possible. At Ironhorse, we do not provide tax advice. What we do is identify when a transaction deserves deeper planning and connect landowners with trusted partners who specialize in these strategies. That early coordination is often the difference between having options and wishing there had been more time. Closing Thoughts Selling land is often a turning point. Handled thoughtfully, it can reposition wealth, simplify life, and support long-term goals.Handled without planning, it can create a permanent tax outcome that cannot be undone. The value of professional guidance is not in avoiding taxes entirely. It is in making sure landowners make decisions with clarity, intention, and a full understanding of the options available. That is how people protect what they have built and move forward with confidence. 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